Wednesday, September 24, 2008
As fall has arrived, the wave of Oscar-worthy films has come with it. While several great films have already been released this year ("The Dark Knight," "Mamma Mia," "WALL-E" and "Burn After Reading" to name a few), they will be largely ignored by the Academy who will honor the late season Oscar-longing epics. With that being said, here is who I think will be the nominees for the six most recognizable awards. These are not necessarily the nominees I would choose, but the nominees I think the Academy will choose.
BEST PICTURE
Winner: "The Changeling" -- The Academy loves Clint Eastwood. "Iwo Jima," "Million Dollar Baby" and "Mystic River" were all directed by Eastwood and all were nominated for Best Picture. He won't win Best Director this year, but I think the Academy will throw him a bone and give him this award.
Other possible nominees: "Australia," "The Argentine" and "WALL-E"
BEST ACTOR
Winner: Mickey Rourke -- This will be the tightest competition of them all. It's definitely a toss-up between Rourke, Penn and DiCaprio. However, I'm going with Rourke because his career is a great comeback story. In fact, I'm pretty sure many thought he was dead until he played Marv in "Sin City" in 2005. This is the first good movie with a theme revolving around pro wrestling and folks at the Toronto Film Festival felt Rourke was amazing. Besides, DiCaprio and Penn have already won a few Oscars.
Other possible nominees: Benicio Del Toro in "The Argentine," Frank Langella in "Frost/Nixon" and Jamie Foxx in "The Soloist"
BEST ACTRESS
Winner: Kate Winslet -- We all love Meryl Streep, but "Revolutionary Road" is bound to win at least one Academy Award and Winslet will be the one to bring it home. She has never won an Oscar before and the Academy will recognize that. Oh, and I hear she's brilliant in this film so that might have something to do with it too.
Other possible nominees: Angelina Jolie in "The Changeling," Melissa Leo in "Frozen River" and Nicole Kidman in "Australia"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Winner: Heath Ledger -- Sorry, Brad. You'll have to wait a little bit longer for that little golden statue. This award is a lock for Ledger unless he gets nominated for Best Actor. Everyone, and I mean everyone wants him to win an Oscar for his performance as The Joker. Many people (this ranting reporter included) will be angry if he doesn't. The Academy has known this for months and will make the right call.
Other possible nominees: Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Doubt," Michael Sheen in "Frost/Nixon" and Robert Downey Jr. in "The Soloist"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Winner: Penelope Cruz -- She was nominated for "Volver," but this is Cruz's best portrayal yet. Playing Juan Antonio's unstable and bisexual ex-wife, Cruz is captivating in this Woody Allen flick.
Other possible nominees: Dakota Fanning in "The Secret Life of Bees," Natalie Portman in "My Blueberry Nights" and Samantha Morton in "Synendoche, New York"
BEST DIRECTOR
Winner: Steven Soderbergh -- Movie-goers at the Berlin Film Festival said "The Argentine" is a modern classic. The film is huge in Europe right now and the Academy has great respect for foreign reception. Howard and Eastwood will be recognized elsewhere and Spike Lee will be snubbed again. Sam Mendes will be Soderbergh's biggest threat.
Other possible nominees: Darren Aronofsky for "The Wrestler," Gus Van Sant for "Milk" and Baz Luhrmann for "Australia"
One last thing -- The only film I see possibly sweeping the Oscars in 2009 is "Revolutionary Road." I have the movie winning one award here, but I could just as easily see it winning five of these six. I also feel "Frost/Nixon" will have several nominations, but will leave with nothing to show for it. Biographical political movies tend to garner acclaim, but never seem to bring home the gold.
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